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Autonomous Trading — Live

Institutional-Grade AI
Prediction Market Trading

A fully autonomous 12-source AI consensus engine that scans 51,000+ prediction markets, identifies mispriced contracts, and executes with institutional risk controls.

74.8%
Win Rate
1.2%
Avg Daily Gain
12
AI Sources
51,000+
Markets Scanned
3%
Max Drawdown
AI Ensemble

12-Source Consensus Engine

10 frontier AI models plus 2 real-time data feeds. Every trade requires multi-source agreement, with weights dynamically calibrated via Brier-score accuracy.

Grok15%
xAI • X.com Integration
Real-time X/Twitter sentiment, breaking news detection, and social signal processing
Gemini Pro10%
Google DeepMind
Multi-modal data fusion and trend detection
Claude10%
Anthropic
Probability calibration and risk assessment
GPT-49%
OpenAI
News synthesis and logical deduction
Qwen8%
Alibaba Cloud
Multilingual analysis and global perspective
DeepSeek8%
DeepSeek AI
Mathematical reasoning and statistical modeling
Mistral8%
Mistral AI
European market context and regulatory analysis
Moonshot8%
Moonshot AI
Long-context analysis and temporal patterns
Google News8%
News Aggregation
Breaking event detection and media consensus
Groq6%
Groq LPU Inference
Sub-second inference and rapid pre-screening
Reddit5%
Sentiment Data Feed
Crowd wisdom aggregation, retail sentiment tracking, and narrative analysis
Order Book5%
Market Microstructure Data
Order flow imbalance, depth analysis, and real-time liquidity signals
Strategy

9-Stage Autonomous Pipeline

From 51,000+ markets down to a handful of high-conviction trades. Every stage filters, validates, and de-risks.

1
Market Scan
51,000+
Real-time monitoring of every active contract across Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Limitless, and DraftKings. APIs polled every 30 seconds for price changes, new listings, and volume spikes.
2
Liquidity Filter
~12,000
Markets must have minimum $1,000 in 24hr volume and a bid-ask spread under 8%. Illiquid markets are excluded to prevent slippage and ensure clean execution.
3
Time Window
~4,200
Markets resolving within 1 week are retained, with priority weighting on contracts resolving within 72 hours — AESTAR's primary edge window where pricing inefficiencies are largest and capital recycling is fastest.
4
Normalize
~4,200
Raw market prices are converted to true probabilities by stripping platform vigorish. If YES=$0.55 and NO=$0.48, the $0.03 overround is removed to compute fair implied probability.
5
Edge Detect
~380
AI consensus probability is compared against normalized market price. Only markets where the detected edge exceeds 8% are flagged. This ensures positive expected value after fees and slippage.
6
AI Consensus
~380
Full 12-source analysis: 10 AI models independently score the market, enriched by Reddit sentiment and order book microstructure signals. Weighted consensus computed via Brier-calibrated weights and isotonic regression.
7
Tier Gate
~55
Signals classified into T1 (Strong), T2 (Good), T3 (Moderate), or T4 (Weak). Only T1-T3 pass the gate — T4 weak signals are automatically rejected regardless of detected edge.
8
Risk & Size
~25
Quarter-Kelly position sizing with tier multipliers. Base size ~3% per position. Circuit breaker check, correlation filter, volatility scaling, and multi-layer guardrails enforced. Full capital deployment authorized for T1 high-conviction signals.
9
Execute
All qualified
Sub-second limit orders placed via platform API. No cap on daily trades — every signal that clears all 8 prior stages is executed. Gain-Wave exit manager activates immediately with ratcheting trailing stops that never fall back.
Signal Quality

Consensus Signal Tiers

Position sizing scales with AI confidence. Weak signals are automatically rejected.

TierConsensus ScoreSize MultiplierMin Win ProbAction
T1 Strong≥ 0.851.50×80%Execute
T2 Good≥ 0.751.25×72%Execute
T3 Moderate≥ 0.651.15×65%Execute
T4 Weak< 0.651.00×< 65%Skip
Risk Management

Institutional-Grade Controls

10 independent guardrails working in concert to protect capital in all market conditions.

3-Level Circuit Breaker
3% Max DD
1% drawdown reduces size 50%. 2% halts new entries. 3% stops all trading. Fully automatic with no manual override.
Conservative Position Sizing
3% Base
Base allocation ~3% of portfolio per position. High-conviction T1 signals may deploy full capital when consensus, edge, and liquidity conditions are all met.
Minimum Edge Threshold
8%+
No position opened below 8% detected edge. Vigorish stripped and true probability computed before comparison.
Gain-Wave Exits
4 Waves
Profits locked at 1.5%, 3.5%, 6%, and 9% floors. Trailing stops ratchet upward and never fall back.
Stop-Loss Discipline
2–5%
Tight per-trade stops cut losses fast. Combined with Gain-Wave exits for asymmetric payoff structure.
Adaptive Kelly Sizing
f*/4
Quarter-Kelly sizing adapts to real-time win rate and edge magnitude. Recalculated every cycle for optimal growth.
Correlation Filter
Auto
Prevents over-concentration in correlated markets. Monitors cross-position correlation in real time and blocks overlapping exposure.
Volatility Scaling
Dynamic
Position sizes automatically scale down during high-volatility regimes. Market turbulence triggers tighter risk budgets and smaller entries.
Platform Health Monitor
24/7
Continuous monitoring of API response times, platform uptime, and settlement integrity. Auto-pauses trading on any platform showing degraded performance.
Execution & Data

Multi-Platform Infrastructure

Scanning, execution, arbitrage, and hedging across every major prediction market and financial exchange.

PolymarketPrimary
Central limit order book trading on the world's largest prediction market. Direct API execution with sub-second order placement.
51,000+ markets • CLOB execution • Primary alpha generation
KalshiRegulated
CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange. Institutional-grade settlement guarantees for economic and policy markets.
Regulated exchange • Event contracts • Policy markets
PredictItArb & Hedge
Political prediction markets used for cross-platform arbitrage. Price discrepancies captured for low-risk profit.
Political markets • Cross-platform arb • Hedging overlay
Limitless ExchangeTrading
High-liquidity prediction exchange with deep order books. Additional alpha opportunities and cross-platform price discovery.
Deep liquidity • Cross-platform arb • Price discovery
DraftKingsSports & Events
Sports and entertainment event markets providing unique alpha in high-liquidity sporting events and entertainment outcomes.
Sports events • Entertainment • High liquidity
RobinhoodHedging
Correlated-asset hedging via ETFs and crypto. Neutralizes directional macro exposure from prediction market positions.
SPY, TLT, BTC, ETH • Macro hedging • Portfolio protection

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